PAPERS SELECTED FOR THE SYMPOSIUM

• “BOTTOM-UP” APPROACH IN ENERGY DEVELOPMENT PLANNING

  Dr Miodrag Mesarović - Energoprojekt - ENTEL, Beograd

  Abstract Text

  The governments have recently set a number of targets in the fields of energy sources, energy efficiency and climate protection to be achieved in the coming years. In order to achieve these objectives, a new quality of action in energy... show full text »
  Abstract Text

  The governments have recently set a number of targets in the fields of energy sources, energy efficiency and climate protection to be achieved in the coming years. In order to achieve these objectives, a new quality of action in energy policy is necessary: while "top down" energy policy measures have to be continued, a reverse strategic "bottom-up" approach must also be applied. Here regions and municipalities have a special role to play due to their proximity to the end consumers in the private, business and public sectors where most decisions in the energy field are actually taken. The policy framework of any country should only clearly show a "top-down" strategic approach based on major commitment in the field of energy, while the major work is to be done within local communities, taking care of locally available energy sources as well as of each energy consumption sector. This paper compares "top-down" and "bottom-up" approaches, with particular attention paid to the latter one, which appears to be the cornerstone of any energy planning, with first one used only to chech if the global energy policy targets are achieved. Modeling methodologies include "top-down" econometric models, while the "bottom-up" are based mainly on end-use models (with end-use detail such as space heating, air conditioning, lighting, etc.) and the newest in energy modeling (incorporating utility customer technology choices, customer satisfaction modeling, customer acquistion in deregulated markets and other capabilities analysis and forecasting capabilities). In actual applications, the empirical relationships are more complicated and a variety of additional modeling and statistical issues must be addressed. End-use modeling is referred to as "bottom-up" modeling reflecting the fact that energy forecasts are developed from the sum of detailed components. This explicit representation of the basic determinates of energy use in each demand sector provide forecasts based on verifiable inputs and also supports the direct representation of conservation and demand response programs, building and equipment standards, new technologies and other important factors. The IEA has provided medium to long-term energy projections using a large-scale hybrid mathematical model designed to generate detailed sector-by-sector and region-by region projections. The development and running of this model requires access to huge quantities of historical data on economic and energy variables, and thus was necessary to establish a specific data base, which differs considerably from the European standard EUROSTAT data base. Convestion between EUROSTAT data base and energy data bases used in Serbia is also presented. « hide
  Symposium Session: Energy resources and sustainable development | Energetski resursi i održivi razvoj